NBA
Miami Heat
vs
Dallas Mavericks
Mon 26 Oct 2026, 23:30
Model probability
82.9%
Basketball · Pace, offence / defence and rest drive the points-based model.
Moneyline (Winner)
Dallas Mavericks
Confidence
68.1 medium
Data quality
55%
sample 2
Basketball projection
Where our points-based model sees the game ending up.
Miami Heat
110.1
Projected score
Dallas Mavericks by 10.9
Dallas Mavericks
121.0
- Expected total points
- 231.1
- League average (per team)
- 113.6
- Model edge
- 32.9 pts over even
Team-by-team inputs
| Metric | Miami Heat | Dallas Mavericks |
|---|---|---|
| Current form |
|
|
| Offence |
|
|
| Defence |
|
|
| Overall strength |
|
|
| Points scored (avg) | 112.7 | 113.6 |
| Points conceded (avg) | 115.9 | 113.6 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Only counted when both sides have met before
Why this Basketball pick?
Basketball points model — projected score 110–121, form 0/50, pace 231.1 pts, data quality 55%. Missing: h2h, statistics, lineup.
Model basketball_v1 · sample size 2 · data quality 55%
Missing sources: h2h, statistics, lineup
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