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Football model football_v1

Liga Portugal

Alverca crest Alverca vs Arouca crest Arouca

Sat 24 Oct 2026, 17:00 · FT 0 - 1

Over 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5

Confidence

54.6 low

Data quality

40%

sample 1

Model projection

Expected goals from form, attack/defence, H2H, league position and availability.

Alverca

1.86

Expected goals

total 3.18

Arouca

1.32

Metric Alverca Arouca
Current form
100%
93%
Attack
64%
47%
Defence
53%
58%
Overall strength
71%
66%
Head-to-head (home share)
50%
League position
50%
Availability (injuries)
100%

Why this prediction?

Poisson model — expected goals 1.86–1.32, form 100/93, H2H 50%, data quality 40%. Missing: h2h, standings, statistics, availability, lineup.

Model football_v1 · sample size 1 · data quality 40%

Missing sources: h2h, standings, statistics, availability, lineup

Outcome LOST · Lost — Alverca vs Arouca (0 - 1), selection "Over 2.5" => LOST.